Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Presenters discuss a method of mortality projection on various scenarios about terrorism that have been written by futurists given the events of Sept. 11. Attendees learn to use a futurism technique scenarios to address actuarial problems.

Description: This presentation, session number 44PD, took place at the 2000 Annual Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held October 15-18 in Chicago. “This session identifies meaningful, evolving dramatic insights arising from the studies and techniques of futurism. It shows how such insights are measured and affected by each other and existing dynamics through the use of actuarial models and related tools.” The presentation notes that “future studies basically takes over when the assumption of continuity in models is a weak assumption or in which there is some reason to believe that one might not be able to use the same model throughout the whole forecasting period.” Discussion from participants is included. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 26, No. 3.